On October 19, Germany recalled ambassador Peter Fischer following what Berlin called a deliberate campaign against him. Leaders in Tbilisi spent months attacking the EU and Germany, including personal attacks against Fischer.
This came after Brussels froze Georgia’s EU accession talks months earlier, after the passage of a controversial foreign agents law under Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, which critics say looked suspiciously Russian-inspired.
From Pressure to a Push East
The EU hoped cutting funds would push Tbilisi to change direction. They suspended €30 million earmarked for defense in 2024 and paused progress on Georgia’s candidate status.
EU Ambassador Pawel Herczynski warned that more sanctions could come if things worsened, but that assumes Tbilisi values what is being withheld.
The country still enjoys special access to the EU, including visa-free travel, while resisting reforms that would make election manipulation harder. Kobakhidze’s government seems to think staying partly detached brings benefits without the pain.
Moscow Fills the Gap
In 2023, Russia reopened flights and dropped visa rules for Georgians. Russian tourists poured in during 2024, with nearly 2 million arriving from Moscow alone.
Russia makes up about 10 percent of Georgia’s trade and is the third-largest partner after the US and UK. Tbilisi bought $145.7 million worth of Russian natural gas in 2024.
Observers note Azerbaijan could meet Georgia’s energy needs fully, but the government prefers to stay dependent on Russia.
Who Stands to Gain from Isolation?
Brussels views Georgia’s move away as Kobakhidze turning away from European values. About 69 percent of Georgians see Russia as an enemy and blame Moscow for blocking EU membership.
Yet the gap between what people want and what the government does grew throughout 2024. Kobakhidze paused talks until 2028 after Europe rejected disputed elections, and he called Brussels’ moves blackmail.
Berlin said Fischer faced personal attacks after attending opposition trials, and local media compared him to Hitler, propaganda Fischer himself shared. Brussels insists Tbilisi must reverse its authoritarian slide to restart talks.
Money Talks Louder Than Values
Georgian Dream, the ruling party founded by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, made much of its fortune in Moscow during the ‘90s. Russian influence leans heavily on economic ties, with state-run firms supporting strategic goals while secret funding backs pro-Russian parties and media.
Trade between Tbilisi and Moscow jumped after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Reports suggest Georgia helps Russia dodge sanctions by selling nearly 100,000 tons of so-called "Georgian oil" to Spain in 2023-24, even though it does not produce oil itself.
Both Brussels and Washington are aware, but sanctions mostly target individuals.
The Paradox of Partnership
The EU assumes candidate countries crave membership enough to accept tough changes, but that breaks down when leaders prefer a halfway house.
Staying semi-detached lets countries enjoy perks without painful EU reforms. Kobakhidze watches Hungary’s Viktor Orban block sanctions while still reaping membership benefits. The lesson is halfway compliance pays off better than full commitment.
Tbilisi strengthened ties with Moscow by restoring flights in 2023 and easing visa rules in 2024. Yet Georgia refuses to join EU sanctions on Russia despite its candidate status, which should require foreign policy alignment.
Brussels issues words, Moscow offers cash and visitors.
What Does Punishment Achieve?
Germany pulling its ambassador aims to send a strong message. EU foreign ministers debate Tbilisi’s confrontational approach in meetings.
The European Commission reported backsliding on reforms in 2024. Each move backs Kobakhidze’s claim that Brussels interferes while Moscow respects sovereignty.
Closer ties with major authoritarian powers give Georgian Dream freer rein to control affairs at home.
Despite steady public support for EU membership, the government bets shifting geopolitics will outlast any consequences.
Ivanishvili expects Ukraine’s war to leave the country devastated, ushering in a world where US and European ties no longer set the economic agenda.
The Uncomfortable Reality
Brussels has limited options when governments prize independence from reform over membership.
Freezing talks mainly hurts people who already reject their government’s course.
Fischer’s recall grabs headlines for a day, but trade with Moscow grows steadily.
Russia was the top buyer of Georgian wine in 2024.
Energy dependence deepens. In 2025, Tbilisi expects to get twice as much Russian natural gas as in 2024.
Every EU suspension helps Kobakhidze tell voters, Brussels demands, Moscow delivers.
The real question is whether punishment can change a drift when the drifting side sees clear benefits.
Brussels bets on pressure to force change, Tbilisi’s calculations say otherwise.
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