On 3 January 2026, the United States launched Operation Absolute Resolve, a large-scale air and land campaign that ended with Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores flown to New York in military custody.
More than 150 aircraft were deployed from 20 different bases, and over 80 people were killed, including 32 members of Cuban military and intelligence agencies stationed in Venezuela.
For Washington, it was presented as a law enforcement action with military support. For many Venezuelans abroad, especially those in Europe who had backed the opposition in exile, the operation brought mixed feelings.
It removed a ruler they opposed, yet it also appeared to sideline leaders they had spent years calling legitimate.
A Capture Framed as Justice
In the days after the raid, President-elect Donald Trump celebrated the operation as a decisive action.
Details that surfaced later showed how carefully planned the campaign had been. U.S. officials briefed that regional governments were informed in advance, and that targets included not only Maduro’s palace compound but air defence systems and intelligence sites. Venezuelan state media condemned the operation as a kidnapping, whilst opposition figures called it overdue justice.
Yet a notable element of Trump’s message stood out. He spoke far more about the agreement reached with former Maduro insider Delcy Rodríguez, who was sworn in as Acting President on 5 January, than about Edmundo González or María Corina Machado, the opposition figures whom many exiles had supported.
Opposition in Exile Kept at Arm’s Length
For years, European governments had treated the exiled opposition as a reference point.
González, who claimed victory in the disputed 2024 election, lives in Spain and has been received by European and U.S. leaders. In January 2025, the Biden administration recognised him as Venezuela’s legitimate president-elect.
In December 2025, hundreds of Venezuelans gathered in Madrid’s Puerta del Sol after the Nobel Committee recognised Machado’s work for democracy. Similar rallies took place in 80 cities worldwide, reflecting the fact that approximately 8 million Venezuelans now live abroad.
Against that background, Trump’s emphasis on working with Rodríguez appeared to represent a shift in approach. The focus seemed to be on whoever controlled the security apparatus, rather than the exiled politicians whom Europe had previously embraced.
For many Venezuelans in Spain, Italy or Portugal, their symbolic votes, marches and efforts to lobby European parliaments suddenly appeared less central than direct arrangements between Washington and figures within the Venezuelan government.
European Capitals as Venezuelan Agoras
Madrid, Lisbon and other cities have become informal Venezuelan capitals in recent years. Spanish government data show approximately 692,316 Venezuelan nationals living in Spain as of January 2025, with many concentrated in Madrid and Barcelona.
They have organised neighbourhood networks, student groups and media outlets, turning cafés and social media channels into political forums. For them, Europe has been both refuge and platform. Spanish and Portuguese politicians regularly attend diaspora events, and the European Parliament has condemned Maduro’s rule in multiple resolutions.
The capture of Maduro therefore landed in streets that already discuss Venezuela daily. Some exiles celebrated openly, grateful that someone they consider illegitimate will face court.
Others expressed concern about what the precedent means: a foreign power removing a ruler and determining who participates in the aftermath.
Law, Power and Who Sits at the Table
European governments welcomed the end of Maduro’s rule but have been more cautious about the method.
International law experts and some diplomats have noted concerns that a cross-border operation without explicit multilateral authorisation raises questions about sovereignty and the UN Charter.
For Venezuelans in exile, the situation presents particular challenges. Many spent years arguing that elections and international pressure were the route out of authoritarianism. They gathered evidence of irregularities, supported sanctions and sought human rights investigations at the United Nations.
Now they observe as the outcome was delivered not through ballots or negotiated transition, but through military intervention and a sudden extraction. Trump’s remark that the United States would “run” Venezuela during an interim period, though later walked back by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, added to questions about the transition process.
If decisions about Venezuela’s future are made primarily in Washington and Caracas, exiles in Madrid or Bogotá may find themselves observers to a transition they helped prepare. The concern is that they are referenced in speeches yet kept away from the rooms where security and economic decisions are made.
What Europe Chooses to Hear
Europe has options in how it relates to this moment. It can accept a narrow frame in which a strongman fell and a partner power stepped in.
Or it can listen more carefully to the millions who left the country and who now live, vote and pay taxes in European cities.
Those communities are asking that any transition include the opposition they supported and the demands that drove them out: elections that function, an economy that does not reward only insiders, and institutions that can survive changes in leadership.
For now, the defining images are American: helicopters, courtroom sketches, press conferences. In Venezuelan cafés in Madrid and Lisbon, conversations carry different notes. People balance relief at seeing Maduro removed with uncertainty about who will govern next, and how long external forces might remain involved.
Europe does not control events in Caracas, but it controls its own recognition and support. It can continue to engage with the exiled opposition in Brussels and Madrid, signal that any interim arrangement should include them, and link reconstruction assistance to inclusive institutions rather than expedient deals.
Such an approach would acknowledge those who filled European squares before the raid occurred, not only the actors who emerged from it. For a continent with its own history of exiled governments and external interventions, that consistency carries weight beyond any single declaration.
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