The campaign to disrupt the friends of Ukraine is crossing borders, turning neighbouring countries into a new frontline. In Poland, a primary corridor for Western aid recently became a target.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed that Russian intelligence services were behind an explosion on a railway line used to transport aid to Ukraine. The Warsaw-Lublin route is a primary artery for military equipment flowing toward Kyiv.
The plot involved two Ukrainian citizens working with Russian services who attempted to derail trains using military-grade C4 charges. After the attack, the suspects, who had entered Poland from Belarus, fled back across the border.
The event was not isolated. A drone struck a Turkish-flagged tanker, the MT Orinda, in Ukraine’s Odesa region as it was offloading liquefied petroleum gas.
The resulting fire was so intense that Romanian authorities had to evacuate the village’s residents from Plauru, located just 500 metres away.
Fortunately, the entire crew on the tanker escaped safely. The strike occurred one day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a deal to import US liquefied natural gas through that very area.
Moscow’s Playbook: A Widening Campaign of Disruption
The attacks are hallmarks of a widening strategy of hybrid warfare. Since early 2024 alone, dozens of confirmed or suspected acts by Russian operatives have occurred in Europe.
Russian-linked actors have also conducted a vast quantity of cyberattacks across Europe and the United States to gather intelligence and sabotage operations.
The methods are often surprisingly low-tech and designed for deniability. Operatives with criminal records or financial vulnerabilities are recruited through encrypted messaging apps and Telegram channels.
Many such recruits remain unaware of the strategic purpose of their actions. Explosive devices are sometimes hidden in ordinary parcels containing consumer products, such as massage pillows.
The Prime Target: Choking Ukraine’s Western Supply Chain
The campaign of sabotage has a specific goal: to sever the logistical lifeline that sustains Ukraine. The western corridor, itself a logistical miracle built under wartime conditions, is the primary target.
From depots in Poland, NATO-supplied materiel makes its way through bottlenecked border crossings and onto Ukrainian railcars.
The assault on the lifeline is multi-pronged. Satellite-guided glide bombs have struck rail yards in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, and near Lviv, while cyberattacks from Russian intelligence units have targeted the Ukrainian Railways dispatch system, causing digital blackouts in scheduling and freight tracking.
Europe’s Response: Fortifying the Arteries
In response, Europe is hardening its defences. The flow of weapons is coordinated by a corps of military experts at an International Donor Coordination Centre in Wiesbaden.
Poland remains the main transit country, though Slovakia and Romania serve as hubs for some transports.
Following the railway attack, Poland tightened security on main rail lines. Now, territorial defence forces patrol an extensive length of track, supported by drones and a helicopter.
Prime Minister Tusk noted that Poland has detained dozens of people in recent months in cases linked to Russian operations. Each detention is a reminder of Moscow’s persistent efforts to generate fear and instability.
An Accelerating Shadow War
The tempo of such operations is accelerating. Reported suspected incidents in recent years have multiplied annually. NATO described the current level of sabotage threats as a record high.
Russia’s method now favors high-impact, low-traceability attacks, relying on proxy actors to achieve deniability. The campaign’s targets are also diversifying, with food supply chains, finance, and telecommunications now attracting attention for their potential to inflict maximum economic damage.
The European Union’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas spoke of the scale of the danger in a July statement, condemning what she called Russia’s persistent hybrid campaigns.
As Europe maintains its financial commitments to Kyiv through the Ukraine Facility, Russia responds by attacking the physical infrastructure enabling that support.
Despite the threats, the trains keep running and the patrols keep watching.
Each repaired rail line and extinguished fire confirms what logistics experts have always known: supply chains win wars.
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